Max Verstappen is now odds-on favorite to win F1 championship, overcoming 104-point deficit

Despite being 104 points down just four races ago, four-time Formula 1 world champion Max Verstappen is now the bookies’ favorite to win the F1 2025 championship and retain the F1 trophy.

They say you’re only as good as your last result, and for Verstappen, that’s exactly what he’d like. First.

So far, the tale has been an orange one. A two-horse race between McLaren’s own Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris has seen them wrap up the Constructors’ Championship with a flying lap.

But the cracks of having two ‘first’ drivers are starting to show, and Max Verstappen has taken the slipstream with both hands, winning 101 out of 108 possible points in four weeks to close the chasmic gap down to a mere 40.

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Max Verstappen is odds-on to win the F1 2025 championship – here’s what he needs to do

Max Verstappen has faced quite a turbulent season in Formula 1 so far.

But the legendary racer is back to his best and has been winning in all forms of racing.

Now, after spending all season in third place in the standings, the driver is being tipped to win the F1 2025 championship in the eyes of odds providers.

ESPN took to social media to reveal that it now has Verstappen as the current favorite, while UK sites like Bet365 and William Hill have also tipped him over Piastri, with Norris being a unanimous third.

Only four drivers can still mathematically win this year’s Formula 1 title.

However, fourth-placed George Russell would need nothing short of the biggest miracle in racing history, winning every race left while Oscar Piastri gets zero points, and neither Norris nor Verstappen overtake the current table-topper.

For Verstappen, his current 40-point deficit is still quite significant. Even if he wins every race, Piastri could still hoist the trophy by finishing second in each one.

With a seven-point swing for finishing first over second, Verstappen would need Piastri to finish outside of the top two on at least one occasion (fourth once, or third twice) while winning every race himself.

Of course, with Norris and Russell still fighting, it’s far from a two-legged sprint to the end, and we can expect fireworks as the Americas tour rounds off and a finale in the Middle East looms.

An all-out attack on the track

Problems with the Red Bull car, significant changes in the backroom staff, and the ongoing second seat crisis have seen the Dutch icon spend most of his time behind the papaya rear wing of Norris and Piastri.

But having committed his future to Red Bull, ending rumors that he was joining Toto Wolff’s Mercedes, and fierce rival George Russell was going the other way, the last five races have seen the champ back to his scintillating best.

Prior to Monza, Verstappen was 104 points behind Piastri in the Drivers’ Championship standings, and it served as the platform to launch his assault.

Winning the race and smashing track records, Verstappen started a run that would see him win four out of the next five races and gain a sprint victory, while the two McLaren cars faced some major issues.

Taking to the Red Bull Instagram page, Verstappen spoke about the chase for the title.

“We need to keep having perfect weekends to fight for the championship,” he said.

Next up is the Mexican Grand Prix, where Max Verstappen is the most decorated Formula 1 driver of all time around the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez circuit.

Timeline of Max Verstappen’s key moments in the F1 2025 season

March 16: The F1 2025 championship kicks off with Max on the podium with a second-place finish at the Australian GP. Piastri wins

April 6: He wins his first race of the year in Japan

June 1 – Aug 3: Verstappen dramatically collides with George Russell at the Spanish Grand Prix. Turmoil at Red Bull erupts with Max consistently out of contention in the next six races, finishing P10, P2, P18, P5, P4, and P9.

July 9: Christian Horner relieved of duties as Red Bull CEO. Laurent Mekies steps in the following day.

July 14: Rumors ramp up about a switch to Mercedes as fans track his private jet and Toto Wolff’s yacht to Sicily

August 1: Verstappen commits his future to Red Bull for the 2026 season.

August 31: Second in his home race at Zandvoort sees Piastri extend the Driver’s Championship points gap to 104

September 7: The dominant run around Monza saw him break the record for the fastest-ever Grand Prix victory

October 19: Max Verstappen wins the United States GP and Sprint, to close the championship gap down to 40 points.

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