How Tesla is getting on with the 31 predictions that have been made about its autonomous vehicles

Elon Musk’s predictions about Tesla autonomous vehicles have made headlines for over a decade.

From robotaxis to full self-driving capabilities, Elon Musk has laid out an ambitious roadmap for Tesla’s future.

Some of those goals are slowly materializing, while others remain far from reality.

So, how close is Tesla to delivering on all 31 of Elon Musk’s predictions made over the years?

VISIT SBX CARS – View live supercar auctions powered by Supercar Blondie

Tesla hits and misses

Well, let’s start with what’s been delivered so far, at least in part.

In August 2022, Elon Musk aimed to get Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology ready by the end of the year, with hopes that it could be in wide release in the US or even in Europe.

By November 2022, Tesla’s FSD beta became available to its customers in North America, although it fell short of its European aspirations.

On a more successful note, in January 2025, the Tesla CEO said that he expected the company to launch unsupervised FSD as a paid service in Austin by June.

This materialized right on schedule, with Tesla launching a limited supervised robotaxi pilot in Austin, which recently expanded test rides to San Francisco.

On the flip side, there were plenty of Elon Musk’s predictions that did not quite bear fruit.

For instance, way back in 2016, he predicted that Tesla autonomous vehicles would be able to drive themselves across the country in 2018.

Musk envisioned a Tesla car that would have the ability to be summoned at will, from New York to Los Angeles, even charging itself along the journey.

Similarly, in 2019, he made a bold statement, saying that he considered autonomous vehicles to be a ‘basically solved problem’, and that complete autonomy was less than two years away.

Neither prediction met Musk’s own deadline, although even critics cannot deny that progress has been made.

Recently, a video showed a Tesla Model Y driving itself from the Texas Gigafactory to its new owner’s house, so while it isn’t quite New York to Los Angeles, it’s a step in the right direction.

Don’t count Elon Musk out yet

There are also a couple of more recent predictions that could still be fulfilled.

For example, he predicts that autonomous ride hailing will be in half the population of the US by the end of 2025, subject to regulatory approvals.

He also predicted that in certain markets, FSD would be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of 2025.

These are certainly ambitious targets, but it’s not completely unexpected coming from Musk.

While things aren’t looking great for Musk, who recently lost $12 billion in wealth overnight, he’s not likely to be too fazed, given how he remains the world’s richest man.

If anybody can bounce back from this setback, it will probably be the man who is billed to become the world’s first trillionaire.

DISCOVER SBX CARS: The global premium car auction platform powered by Supercar Blondie