I compared how much it costs to own a Tesla vs Toyota gas car over 15 years and there's a very stark difference

I compared the costs of a Tesla Model 3 over 15 years with the costs of running a Toyota Corolla for the same time, and I saw a clear difference.

It’s a question that’s often been asked by drivers – will switching to an EV prove to be cheaper in the long run?

There are several reasons why people decide to switch to EVs, but obviously the money factor is always important.

And on that front, the result may convince several fence sitters to make up their minds.

This is how much it’ll cost to run a Tesla Model 3 for 15 years

For the sake of this comparison, we assumed 12,000 miles a year, which works out to 180,000 miles over a period of 15 years.

At the time of writing, electricity costs 18.8 cents per kWh, while gasoline is 4.05 a gallon on average, according to figures from the EIA.

The stated fuel economy of a Tesla Model 3 Long Range AWD came out at 26 kWh per 100 miles of range – 46,800 kWh over 15 years of use.

That comes out at $8,798 for 15 years.

One thing to note is that these figures assume every unit of electricity goes directly into the battery.

In reality, some energy is lost during charging, so real-world charging costs could be slightly higher than the estimates used here.

How does the Corolla fare by comparison?

Over the same period, and with the exactly the same mileage, the Toyota Corolla would cost $20,828 in gas, over $12,029 more than the Model 3.

Then there’s maintenance, which is a bit unpredictable.

But, assuming nothing goes wrong, over 15 years you’d likely spend $6,000 on routine maintenance for the Model 3 and $7,350 for the Toyota Corolla.

The final costs

Based purely on gas/electricity and routine maintenance costs over 15 years, the Tesla Model 3 came to $14,798, compared with $28,178 for the Toyota Corolla.

That means the Tesla was $13,380 cheaper to run, saving nearly half the operating costs over the same period.

Of course, real-world ownership costs also include factors such as depreciation and insurance, which can significantly change the overall picture.

What about depreciation?

Even though EVs generally depreciate faster than gas cars, it still remains unpredictable, especially if you look at a 15-year horizon.

Going by today’s market, a Toyota Corolla won’t depreciate as quickly.

You can probably expect it to retain roughly 20 percent to 25 percent of its original value even after 15 years, meaning you lose only about $18,000 to $20,000 in total value over a decade and a half.

The massive catch that can change everything

15 years is a long time, and there’s a chance you’re going to have to replace the battery pack and/or the electric motor.

If that happens, your overall cost will go up significantly.

If you buy a Model 3 now, today, Tesla’s warranty will cover the powertrain and battery pack for 8 years or 120,000 miles.

After that, it’s up to you.

And if something does go wrong, you’re looking at least $4,000 to $6,000 for the powertrain, and $13,000 for the battery pack.

This is all theoretical

In theory, those are the numbers.

In practice, it’s all theoretical, and theory generally doesn’t survive impact with reality.

The truth of the matter is that, over the last 15 years, so many of the initial perks that came with EVs – free this, tax exempt that – have either been phased out completely or reduced.

Also, both energy costs and gas prices are rising, but not at the same pace.

At this rate, battery technology appears to be more scalable than internal combustion, which is a type of technology we’ve known for a while.

So, 15 years from now, it’s entirely possible that a Tesla Model 3 (or equivalent) will have progressed twice as fast as an equivalent gas-powered sedan.