The reasons that make Max Verstappen's Red Bull exit more likely than ever

Max Verstappen’s Red Bull exit may be likely, after team boss Christian Horner was removed from his position after 20 years in charge. This could impact the future of Max Verstappen amid rumors of a Mercedes switch.

Before Horner’s sacking, the rumor mill was in full flow that Verstappen would leave the team he has called home since 2016 and fly the nest to Mercedes.

A loss of key personnel, a car that’s difficult to drive and has been overtaken by McLaren, and a problem surrounding the second driver are all factors behind this.

But with Horner now gone, rather than make it more likely Verstappen will stay, it could ensure he walks away from the team by the end of 2025.

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Why Max Verstappen’s Red Bull exit is such a talking point

Verstappen won his first world title in 2021 at the end of a dramatic season, before taking another three in a row.

Following his 2021 win, the Dutchman signed a new deal with Red Bull through the end of 2028.

His belief in his team only increased after a dominant 2022 and a 2023 season that saw him and Red Bull annihilate the competition.

The team took 21 wins in 22 races, with Verstappen winning 19 of them, including 10 in a row.

But since the middle of 2024, rumors about Verstappen heading to Mercedes have refused to go away.

These only intensified as key people left the Red Bull team, and his F1 car got slower.

Why Max Verstappen’s Red Bull exit might be inevitable

Star designer Adrian Newey left the team in 2024, as did Sporting Director Jonathan Wheatley, with designer Rob Marshall having left the team in 2023.

As the 2024 season unfolded, McLaren caught up and overtook Red Bull on car development.

The RB20 that Verstappen and teammate Sergio Perez drove became a nightmare to handle.

With Lewis Hamilton moving from Mercedes to Ferrari, a potential opening was there for Verstappen.

However, the team decided to opt for Kimi Antonelli instead.

And Verstappen decided to stay the course with his current team.

But Red Bull has won just twice in 2025 so far.

So Verstappen effectively has no chance of defending his title.

Which means that this time around, things are very different.

In addition, Mercedes is also holding off on giving George Russell a new contract beyond 2025.

The Brit has suggested it’s his team’s interest in Verstappen that’s behind it. Which could significantly increase Verstappen’s Red Bull exit chances.

Christian Horner’s exit caused huge waves

As you probably already know, Christian Horner ceased to be Red Bull Team Leader just a few days ago.

And no one is sure whether his team boss’s exit is set to cause Verstappen to leave the fold.

Verstappen’s dad, Jos, has famously fallen out with Christian Horner, and there have been clear rifts within parts of the team.

But Max himself has remained on good terms with his team principal.

Dutch media has reported that the Verstappens weren’t pushing for Christian Horner to leave.

From my first race win, to four world championships, we have shared incredible successes. Winning memorable races and breaking countless records. Thank you for everything, Christian! pic.twitter.com/au4XjMqhlH

— Max Verstappen (@Max33Verstappen) July 9, 2025

What that sacking does, however, is add even more chaos to the Red Bull team.

With the car not getting any faster in 2025 and with big rule changes coming for 2026, there’s even more scope for Verstappen to leave.

The 2026 F1 rule changes are key to Verstappen’s Red Bull decision

In 2026, F1 will have new cars and engines that could rip up the rulebook.

There will be more emphasis now on the car’s power units.

Mercedes kicked off the turbo hybrid era in 2014 with the best engine.

The current ‘paddock gossip’ is that this is likely to be the case again in 2026.

Red Bull, meanwhile, will lose their Honda engines to Aston Martin.

They are now creating a new engine in partnership with Ford, but that might fall short of their rivals.

It therefore makes sense for Verstappen to leave his current team.

Given that he is the best on the grid at the moment, why wouldn’t Mercedes want him?

George Russell is clearly still negotiating a contract at Mercedes.

But the chance to sign Verstappen, who Mercedes let get away years ago to Red Bull, is too tempting for boss Toto Wolff.

The next month may reveal whether Verstappen’s Red Bull exit is really on the cards.

And whatever he decides may well define the rest of his Formula 1 career.

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