People who live in these US states are the ones set to lose the most with the end of the EV tax credit

The federal EV tax credit has been the safety net under America’s electric car market.

It made expensive EVs feel just a little more affordable.

But that net is about to be cut, and not all states will feel it equally.

Some are bracing for billion-dollar losses, while others will barely notice.

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The states with the most to lose when the EV tax credit ends

On September 30, 2025, the government’s EV tax credit expires. 

For years, it’s been the magic coupon that softened the blow of sticker-shock and nudged people into electric ownership. 

Now, the math gets harsher.

In 2023 alone, nearly half a million new EV buyers filed claims worth $3.3 billion, while used EV shoppers chipped in another $95.6 million. 

The average payout? 

Around $6,700 for a new car, $3,400 for a secondhand one. 

Take that away and the buying equation shifts dramatically.

No state has more at stake than California. 

If the program disappears, its drivers lose out on roughly $1.1 billion in incentives.

Texas follows with just under $273 million, then Florida with about $201 million.

On the opposite end sits Mississippi, North Dakota, and Louisiana, where EV credits barely made a dent in the first place. 

For automakers, that’s a patchwork market.

Hot zones are suddenly cooling, while slow states will stay slow.

And the trend was already wobbly. 

Nationwide EV registrations grew to 1.7 percent of all light-duty vehicles in 2023, up from 1.2 percent the year before. 

But sales of new EVs actually dipped 6.3 percent in Q2 this year compared with last.

Removing the credit risks pouring cold water on an already lukewarm market.

What this means for the electric car market

Nationwide, EVs are still only a sliver of the market. 

Just 1.7 percent of light-duty vehicles on US roads in 2023 were electric, even after the tax credit helped thousands of buyers. 

And in Q2 2025, new EV sales actually slipped 6.3 percent compared with the same period last year.

LendingTree’s analysis warns that removing the federal incentive could slow demand even further.

Especially in states without strong local programs or charging infrastructure to pick up the slack. 

That means fewer people crossing the line into EV ownership, and a tougher job for automakers already facing softer sales.

For buyers, the next couple of weeks may be one of the last chances to claim the maximum credit. 

For the industry, the end of the program reshapes both forecasts and strategy relating to the electric car market.

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