Scientists calculate the odds that Elon Musk’s Tesla in space could hit Earth and the chances are surprisingly high

When SpaceX launched the iconic red Tesla Roadster into space in 2018, most people thought that Elon Musk’s Tesla in space would simply drift forever.

But according to scientists, the car’s cosmic road trip might not be as endless as we imagined.

In fact, the electric convertible’s odds of eventually hitting Earth (or Venus, or even the Sun) are higher than you might think.

It turns out there’s still traffic even in space, and the Roadster is weaving through some busy lanes.

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The Roadster is back in the limelight

The Tesla Roadster has been hogging headlines recently, after YouTuber Marques Brownlee publicly canceled his Tesla Roadster order, nearly eight years after he paid a $50,000 deposit.

However, after many years of delays, there might be hope in sight: Tesla’s Chief Designer just promised an ‘epic’ demo for the car by the end of 2025.

Of course, now that the hype regarding the Tesla Roadster is back, there is one question on many people’s minds: whatever happened to the Roadster that was launched into space?

Well, researchers ran advanced orbital simulations to track what might happen to the car over the next 15 million years, and the results are pretty fascinating.

They found that the Tesla’s orbit, which crosses paths with both Earth and Mars, is so chaotic that it’s impossible to predict its exact path beyond a few centuries.

Instead, they ran hundreds of computer models to see where it might statistically end up.

The verdict: about a 22 percent chance it will crash into Earth someday, a 12 percent chance it’ll hit Venus, and another 12 percent chance it’ll plunge straight into the Sun.

Right now, the Roadster is looping around the Sun at a distance similar to Mars’s orbit, occasionally drifting back toward Earth’s neighborhood.

Every few decades, it passes close enough for our planet’s gravity to tug at it slightly, sending it on a new path.

Over time, these gravitational ‘nudges’ will either fling it into another planet or drag it down toward the Sun.

When should we expect possible impact from the Tesla in space?

But don’t worry, there’s no need to start building Tesla-proof bunkers.

After all, there’s actually a website designed to track the location of Elon Musk’s Tesla in space, and it’s not very near the Earth.

Scientists say the first possible close encounter with Earth won’t happen for at least 100 years, and even then, the odds of an actual impact anytime soon are astronomically low.

So for now, Musk’s Tesla in space remains the strangest piece of space junk in the Solar System: cruising silently with a dummy driver named Starman, forever chasing the stars.

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